Gross Domestic Product, Industrial Production and Trade Balance (GBP, GMT 07:00) – A plethora of data from the UK should confirm a continued stuttering recession. The UK final GDP for Q3 is expected to confirm a contraction rate of -0.2% q/q, and headline from 4.4% y/y, falling to 2.8% y/y. Industrial Production for September is expected at -0.2% from 1.8%. The trade deficit is seen at -20.40B. The BOE’s predicts a long-lasting recession, with activity expected to decline by around 3/4% in the second half of this year, and to continue to fall throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024 “as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending.” In this environment the unemployment rate is seen rising to just under 6.5% by the end of the forecast period and aggregate slack to hit 3% of potential GDP.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German inflation for October is expected unchanged at 0.9% m/m and 10.4% y/y.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment & New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 59.9 in the final October print, inching up from the 59.8 preliminary and rising 1.3 points from the 58.6 in September. This is the highest since April’s 65.2 and has improved from the record nadir of 50.0 in June.
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